Category Archives: Demographics

Fun with maps and movies

DCist takes note of Matt Yglesias’ tweet on the New York Times’ fantastic interactive map of various metropolitan areas, broken down by zip codes and how popular each of Netflix’s top 50 rentals of 2009 was in those areas.

The geographic patterns are fascinating, and quite revealing about the social and economic geography of the DC area.

Some screenshots (click to see full size):

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Tyler Perry is popular in PG County, but not so much at Andrews AFB. Also note the other cities on the right.

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Milk presents an almost complete opposite map of popularity.

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Role Models. Complete with spikes in popularity at couple military bases (Andrews AFB, Fort Meyer, and Fort Meade) and two colleges (Georgetown and Maryland).

Absolutely great stuff.  Maps are available for 12 Metropolitan areas: New York, Boston, Chicago, DC, the Bay Area, LA, Seattle, the Twin Cities, Denver, ATL, Dallas and Miami.

Populating DC

Things going up. CC image from flickr.

Things going up. CC image from flickr.

Some assorted Census/demographic items from recent days:

DC’s population is closing in on 600,000 residents.  One of Ryan Avent’s commenters (rg) notes the historical issues with the accuracy of the Census Bureau’s annual population estimates for cities and urban areas:

Building on what Eric wrote: throughout the late 1990s, the Census Bureau estimated that the District was hemorrhaging population, right up to the 1999 estimate. Lo and behold, when they actually conducted the Census in 2000, it turned out that the 1999 estimate was off by tens of thousands of people: in 1999 the Census Bureau estimated the District’s population was 519,000; the 2000 Census counted 572,000 people in the District!!! They were WAY OFF in 1999. I write this not to trash the Census Bureau but to note that their estimates can be quite suspect. In the case of urban areas, it seems that their methodology, at least in 1990s, was biased against urban areas. So, do not be surprised if the actual 2010 Census count is much higher than this 2009 estimate.

This is indeed true.  The 1990 Census put DC’s population at 606,900.  That same year, the population estimate for the city pegged the population at 603,814 (the decennial census is a snapshot of the nation on Census Day, April 1 of each 10th year – the population estimates are supposed to be a snapshot of July 1 of each year…), and things went downhill from there, at least in terms of the estimates:

Year    Population    Change
1990    603814
1991    593239    -10575
1992    584183    -9056
1993    576358    -7825
1994    564982    -11376
1995    551273    -13709
1996    538273    -13000
1997    528752    -9521
1998    521426    -7326
1999    519000    -2426

This decade hasn’t seen the same massive declines from year to year, yet it remains to be seen if the positive signs from the population estimates will translate into the same kind of bump seen from the 1999 estimate to the 2000 Census.  Compare the previous decade to this one:

Year    Population    Change
2000    571744
2001    578042    6298
2002    579585    1543
2003    577777    -1808
2004    579796    2019
2005    582049    2253
2006    583978    1929
2007    586409    2431
2008    590074    3665
2009    599657    9583

Either way, the 2010 Census effort will be vital for the city.

More is better: Various folks chime in on the new growth  – Loose Lips, taking note of the Post’s article, for example.

D.C. Council member Jack Evans (D-Ward 2), whose district stretches from Georgetown to Shaw, gave credit to former mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) for the city’s apparent population rebound. Williams, who was in office from 1999 to 2007, set a goal in 2003 of adding 100,000 residents in a decade. Williams invested heavily in development, improving city services and reducing crime.

“The whole image of the District of Columbia began to change from a dangerous, dirty, unsafe place to a very different city,” Evans said.

Council member Jim Graham (D-Ward 1) dates the changes to 2005, with the construction of thousands of downtown apartments. The ensuing influx, Graham said, changed the character of his ward, including neighborhoods near the Columbia Heights Metro station, 14th and U streets, and the eastern end of the U Street corridor.

“We’ve always felt that we were having this population growth, but it just wasn’t being reflected in the data,” Graham said.

Indeed – and the best way to get the data to reflect the on-the-ground reality is to have a strong showing for the 2010 Census.

Domestic Migrants: Ryan Avent and Matt Yglesias look at the primary cause in the uptick in DC’s population – domestic migration.  People are moving here, as a net positive, for the first time in a long time.

Data Types: Jarrett Walker notes some changes in the way detailed economic and transportation data will be collected and organized.

Overall, the neighborhood-level American Community Survey is going to be a great thing.  It will present in rolling averages of the last five years, so it will show a bit if a lag, but it’s an important step.  You can’t fix what you can’t quantify.

That last sentence brings to mind one of the City Paper’s quotes of the year, from former City Administrator Dan Tangherlini:

Optimism without data is really just an emotion.

600,000

2010 Census Mug - CC image from flickr

2010 Census Mug - CC image from flickr

Ryan Avent takes note of some joyous holiday news for the District:

I always love looking through new population estimates from the Census Bureau. New numbers, estimated as of July 2009, have just come out, and it appears the District is just a few hundred people short of crossing the 600,000 threshold. From 2008 to 2009, the District was the fifth fastest growing state, in percentage terms.

The full dataset is available here.  DC’s estimate from July 2009 puts the population at 599,657.  This obviously puts the 600,000 number within reach for the 2010 Census.  However, crossing that threshold isn’t a given, as the methodology from the Census’s population estimates in the intervening years between each decennial census vary quite a bit from the forms everyone will be filling out in March of 2010.

With that in mind, it’s vital that DC achieve a complete and accurate count in 2010.  600,000 isn’t just a nice round number to pass, as it shows a real growth and reinvestment in both DC specifically and urban areas in general that’s taken place over the past few years.

Building partisan cities (?)

Following up on the current Republican assertion that what is urban cannot also be local, there’s been a lot more discussion today concerning cities and their political leanings.

The Overhead Wire asserts that building cities “shouldn’t be a partisan issue.”  There’s certainly something to be said for that – as adding density is probably one of the most obvious ways to embrace the free market.  Likewise is the recognition that all transportation modes are subsidized, and rail transit is the most effective means of transport in urban areas.  There are plenty of things within the urban condition for conservatives to like:

Conversely, Yonah Freemark takes a look at the results from the most recent Presidential race, showing that the voting patterns for people living in more dense areas just don’t show much bi-partisanship:

The contrast is even more remarkable in the counties on the limits of typical density; those that are most urban went overwhelmingly for Mr. Obama, while those that are the most rural went to Mr. McCain with a large majority.

2008 Presidential Election Results in Extreme Low and High Density Counties
Density Total Votes # of Counties Obama Share
McCain Share
0-14 ppl/sq mi 2.5 million 667 38 % 60 %
10,002-57,173 ppl/sq mi 3.7 million 8 81 %
18 %

Since we’re discussing election results, I’ll use this opportunity to show off some of the cool cartograms from Mark Newman at the University of Michigan.  Yonah broke down the results by county and by density.  County by county results look like this:

2008 Presidential election results by county

2008 Presidential election results by county

And, when you look at the same data in a cartogram that scales county size in proportion to population, graphically displaying the density of the county:

2008 Presidential election by county - scaled by county population

2008 Presidential election results by county - scaled by county population

So, there’s obvious truth to Yonah’s point, as well – America’s big cities are quite blue.

The larger point, however, is that national partisan divides and cleavages don’t apply all that well to local issues.  There are numerous politicians that are certainly progressive on national social and economic issues, but wouldn’t be on the forefront of progressive urban policy.  Likewise, business-oriented leaders like Mike Bloomberg (regardless of his party affiliation) are certainly progressive at the local level. Guys like Bill Lind (from the video above) and the late Paul Weyrich emphasize the points.

There’s certainly a conservative niche in urban areas that could be carved out, but it’s not clear that Republicans want to do the carving.  When Jim Oberstar’s draft transportation bill is labeled as an “exercise in lifestyle modification,” or that transit opponents argue that advocates want to force everyone into Soviet housing, it’s clear that they don’t care to take that step.

Local cities and regions

From luca5 on Flickr

From luca5 on Flickr

Jarrett Walker highlights a rather disturbing turn of phrase from David Brooks’ recent profile of Senator John Thune (R – South Dakota).  Walker notes:

David Brooks gives urbanists a velvet-gloved insult:

His populism is not angry. … But it’s there, a celebration of the small and local over the big and urban.

This rhetorical device is meant to imply, without quite saying, that “local” is the opposite of “urban”, just as “small” is the opposite of “big.”

In the grand scheme of politics, this isn’t all that surprising.  It’s also frustratingly inaccurate, as any metropolitan dweller can attest – things are just as local in the big city as they are out in the wide open spaces.  For all the positive words coming out of the Obama administration concerning not just cities, but metropolitan areas and their central role in our culture, our economy, and so on.

Matt Yglesias also notes the backlash, highlighting a passage from Christopher Hitchens:

The United States has to stand or fall by being the preeminent nation of science, modernity, technology, and higher education. Some of these needful phenomena, for historical reasons, will just happen to concentrate in big cities and in secular institutions and even—yes—on the dreaded East Coast.

The research universities and major business enterprises that our the foundation of our way of life are, overwhelmingly, in major metropolitan areas. Not because there’s anything wrong with the people of rural Alaska, but because that’s how the world works. The idea of making dislike of metropolitan American (or perhaps all of metropolitan America except Houston) the basis of your approach to governing is pretty nuts.

Walker notes that the Republicans have nothing to gain from the cities, so why bother even trying?

But the Republicans have lost the cities. (As New York Governor George Pataki supposedly said to George Bush as they approached the crowds gathered to hear Bush speak on the site of 9/11: “See all those people? None of them voted for you!”) So they may well feel that they can use “urban” in a negative sense without much cost.

Perhaps the best way to counter this is to do so with the truth.  This isn’t about urban vs. rural, it’s about (as Matt notes) metropolitan vs. rural.  Metropolitan areas need to have a strong core, but don’t need to be burdened with the connotations of the word ‘urban.’  It’s also a more accurate description and approach to how our cities and regions actually operate.  They’re not constrained by the artificial jurisdictional boundaries our politicians have to deal with.

Finally, I take some solace knowing that turning your back on cities and metro areas is tantamount to a political death sentence.  Hitchens notes:

But the problem with populism is not just that it stirs prejudice against the “big cities” where most Americans actually live, or against the academies where many of them would like to send their children. No, the difficulty with populism is that it exploits the very “people” to whose grievances it claims to give vent.

Nate Silver also noted the demographic danger in casting off the suburbs and cities as an electoral strategy in this post-mortem of the 2008 election results:

In 1992, when Bill Clinton won his first term, 35 percent of American voters were identified as rural according to that year’s national exit polls, and 24 percent as urban. This year, however, the percentage of rural voters has dropped to 21 percent, while that of urban voters has climbed to 30. The suburbs, meanwhile, have been booming: 41 percent of America’s electorate in 1992, they represent 49 percent now (see chart).In other words, if you are going to pit big cities against small towns, it is probably a mistake to end up on the rural side of the ledger… With the votes that he banked in the cities, Obama did not really need to prevail in the suburbs. But he did anyway — as every winning presidential candidate has done since 1980 — bettering McCain by 2 points there. Indeed, among the many mistakes the McCain campaign made was targeting the rural vote rather than the suburban one, as Bush and Karl Rove did in 2000 and 2004.

Indeed.  Cities and their metropolitan areas are more intertwined than ever, and politicians should denigrate them at their own peril.  They are the places where the vast majority of Americans have their local connections – even the urban ones.

ACS – Answering my own question

(hat tip to Dr. Gridlock)

In earlier posts, I wondered what DC’s regional transit data looks like – and with the release of the 2006-2008 three-year estimates from the American Community Survey, we have some answers.

Data is available for the Washington, DC urbanized area.  That area looks like this:

So, that includes a lot of stuff, and a whole lot of suburbia.

The transportation data is as follows:

COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 2,221,629 +/-8,331 2,221,629 (X)
Car, truck, or van — drove alone 1,415,834 +/-9,036 63.7% +/-0.3
Car, truck, or van — carpooled 237,724 +/-5,008 10.7% +/-0.2
Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 363,334 +/-5,319 16.4% +/-0.2
Walked 77,067 +/-2,795 3.5% +/-0.1
Other means 33,023 +/-1,979 1.5% +/-0.1
Worked at home 94,647 +/-3,018 4.3% +/-0.1

So, 63.7% of the region’s workers commute in a single-occupant vehicle, with 16.4% using transit.  For the same three year window (2006-2008), DC’s stats look like this:

COMMUTING TO WORK
Workers 16 years and over 293,532 +/-3,568 293,532 (X)
Car, truck, or van — drove alone 108,373 +/-3,363 36.9% +/-1.0
Car, truck, or van — carpooled 19,121 +/-1,591 6.5% +/-0.5
Public transportation (excluding taxicab) 108,687 +/-2,469 37.0% +/-0.8
Walked 34,455 +/-2,033 11.7% +/-0.7
Other means 9,421 +/-1,023 3.2% +/-0.3
Worked at home 13,475 +/-1,451 4.6% +/-0.5

36.9% drove alone, while 37.0% used transit.

Note that this is the rolling three-year sample, so the data is slightly different from the 2008 ACS data released earlier.

Good News, Bad News

Some good news here in DC:

Ryan Avent notes that despite the recession, the District is still a popular destination for people moving in.  It will be very interesting to see where DC’s population number ends up with the 2010 Census.

Bad news:

Construction within the District is way down from a year ago.

But there’s more good news!

Union Station’s bike station has glass!

From around the nation, some other promising tidbits:

72% of Charlotte’s LRT riders hadn’t used transit before.  Like The Overhead Wire, I think that’s a huge number.  Some of it might be to good timing with the nationwide increase in transit ridership and gas price spikes coinciding with the opening of the line – after all, you never get a second chance to make a first impression.  Still, that’s a fantastic number and shows the kind of bias for rail potential riders have.

Small scale solutions to water issues get some publicity in Roll Call.

Most of us think of water and wastewater infrastructure as consisting of big pipes, treatment plants and reservoirs. Few of us recognize the importance of our natural infrastructure — the forests, wetlands, flood plains and grassy, permeable landscapes, which filter and purify water for humans, provide habitat for fish and wildlife, and mitigate hot summers in city and town. Our natural landscape provides us with the most cost-effective and efficient system for recycling, reusing and filtering water.

This way of thinking has to change. Our infrastructure is aging. We pay relatively low water rates, which fail to cover the full value or cost of clean and safe water. We are losing more undeveloped land each year along with its trees, shrubs and grasses and are replacing it with impervious surfaces — roofs, roads, parking lots — that allow pollution to be carried off into our waters. We find ourselves in a changing climate, whatever the cause, bringing with it chaotic weather patterns including droughts in some places and greater precipitation and polluted runoff in others.

This kind of small scale thinking is something the Feds should encourage cities to take on, as it fits into their purview far more than, say, massive and expensive deep tunnel projects.  (Hat tip – Infrastructurist)

And one bit of bad news from New York: The Feds don’t like the delays and budget projections for the Second Avenue Subway.

The story is simple: The MTA has been unable to meet any of its self-imposed deadlines, and it now faces the prospects of massive cost overruns and a six-year delay in delivering Phase I of the Second Ave. Subway. Original plans called for the entire line to be constructed by 2020. That is but a pipe dream right now.

The FTA numbers are alarming. The MTA is budgeting for an expected cost of $4.451 billion with a high end of $4.775 billion. The FTA believes a low budget estimate to be $4.978 billion with an August 2017 completion date. The federal government’s high end is $5.728 billion — over $1 billion more than the current MTA estimate — with a June 2018 opening date.

It’s too bad, since mismanagement like this (and Boston’s Big Dig also comes to mind) turns people away from thinking big and long term.